Monitoring and Forecasting the Weather for the Wasatch Mountains:
A Preliminary Look at Weather Support for the 2002 Winter Olympics
John Horel
Professor, Department of Meteorology
Acting Director, NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction

Department of Meteorology

8 academic faculty (search for new dept. chair underway)

Active research programs in: remote sensing, cloud physics, analysis and modeling of the atmosphere on a variety of temporal and spatial scales

On-line information: Department of Meteorology

My specific research areas:

climate simulations of the Mexican Monsoon
validation of operational and research model forecasts in complex terrain
development of Utah Mesonet and local analyses for the Wasatch Front
planning weather support for the 2002 Winter Olympics

Weather and the Olympics

Weather has affected previous Olympic Games:

1984 Los Angeles Summer Olympics: restrictions on industry to control smog
1984 Sarajevo Winter Olympics: snowstorms led to weather delays
1988 Calgary Winter Olympics: record warm temperatures
1992 Albertville Winter Olympics: significant weather delays for alpine events
1994 Lillehammer Winter Olympics: cold temperatures
1996 Atlanta Summer Olympics: heat/humidity/thunderstorms
1998 Nagano Winter Olympics: significant weather impacts
- 6 days during which alpine ski events were postponed
- weather conditions during Olympics

Weather will affect the 2002 Winter Olympics

Based on records compiled by the National Weather Service, the weather during the period February 8-24 is quite variable; severe winter storms are common as well as episodes of fog or smog

Significant Weather Events: 1984-1998

1998

8-9. Brief snowstorm caused slick roads and numerous accidents

1997

11. Front with 12-15 inches of snow in Wasatch
17-18. Storm with 2-5 inches in valleys & 12-16 inches in mountains
23-24 Strong canyon winds with gusts to 81 mph (53 mph at UU). Schools closed in Ogden due to power outages. Estimated $2 million damage.

1996

9. High pollution levels along Wasatch Front.
11. Record maximum temperatures in the Wasatch Mountains. Alta 57°F

1995

11-12. Winter storm in northern part of state. 1 backcountry skier killed in Big Cottonwood Canyon. 2-3 feet of snow ski resorts
13-14. Major winter storm. Thunderstorms during morning commute. Winds at ski resorts to 120 mph. Hundreds of auto accidents. 1-2 feet snow at ski resorts
19-24. Warm spell with new daily high temperature records. Park City 56°F on 24th month warmest on record at Salt Lake City airport

1994

6-8. Major storm; 2-3 feet snow at ski resorts. Skier killed near Alta.
10-11. Severe weather with lightning and squall line. Power out in Cache Valley. Park City schools closed. Avalanche near Solitude. 2-3 feet snow at ski resorts.
17-19. Rain followed by snow in valleys; heavy snow in mountains. Roads flooded in Cache Valley. Slick roads in passes and Park City area. 68 mph gust in Kearns
22. Snow storm during commute; over 100 accidents. Runways closed for periods of time at Salt Lake Airport. High winds and drifting snow. 10 inches snow in valley to several feet in mountains

1993

8. Canyon winds with gusts to 51 mph at Hill A.F. Base
9. Freezing rain near Ogden
16-17. Snow and high winds. Multi-car pileups during morning commute in Davis and Utah Counties
18-21. major winter storm with strong winds and near blizzard conditions. Driving nightmare; 50 cars involved near Point of the Mountain; gusts to 80 mph at SnowBird tram; 2-3 feet snow at ski resorts
20. Avalanche near Sundance Ski Resort
22. Blizzard conditions with I80 closed between Echo Junction and Wyoming border; 94 mph gust at Mt. Ogen above Snowbasin ski resort

1992

10-14. Heavy snow in Wasatch Mountains, 2-3 feet.
16-18. Major winter storm; 8-10 inches along benches; 1-2 feet in Wasatch
20-21. Severe weather and snow. Hail and lightning near Ogden
22. Another fast moving storm with 1500 foot-wide avalanche near Snowbasin ski resort. Snow in Parleys Canyon brought traffic to standstill

1991

8. Heavy fog causing planes to be diverted for a short period at Salt Lake airport
16-18. A major storm with 2-3 feet of snow. Glazed roadways on the 18th caused traffic accidents.
Month as a whole very dry with Wasatch Mountain precipitation roughly 60% of normal.

1990

12-14. Major winter storm with gusting winds and blowing snow.
15. Very cold air across the state: -18°F at Solitude ski area
16-19. Powerful winter storm with 52 mph gust at Salt Lake Airport; 2+ feet snow in Wasatch Mountains
19. Canyon winds with 40-60 mph gusts along east benches

1989

8. Record low of -7°F and record low maximum of 20°F at Salt Lake Airport.
19-20. Major winter storm with 1-2 feet of snow in mountains and 2-4 inches in valley floors. 50 mph winds at Soldiers Summit. Month as a whole very cold and wet with lots of snow.

1988

13. Blustery cold front with near blizzard conditions during morning commute contributing to a 40-50 vehicle pile-up at the Point of the Mountain. Wind gusts to 106 mph at Snowbird; 94 mph at Deer Valley.
16. Another cold front with snow in the mountains and strong winds. 92 mph gust at Snowbird
Second driest February on record at Salt Lake Airport.

1987

13-14. Squall line with hail, thunder/lightning and winds gusting to 70 mph. 2+ feet of snow in mountains
15. Back-counrtry skier killed in Big Cottonwood Canyon.
20. Local canyon winds with gusts to 40-50 mph along benches.
23-24. Intense winter storm with wind gusts to 40-50 mph. Snow drifts across roads and reduced visibilities

1986

12-13. Very wet storm along Wasatch Front and Northern Mountains. 2-3 feet snows at ski resorts. Many natural released avalanches. 2 feet of snow at Parleys Summit with near blizzard conditions for a time over the higher passes.
14-17 Warm temperatures, warm heavy rains in valleys and lower slopes, and heavy snow at higher elevation led to avalanches and mudslides: couple homes destroyed at Sundance ski area. Wind gust recorded at Park City of 120 mph. Ski area closures at Snow Basin and Sundance. Avalanches cut off access to Powder Mountain ski resort .
18. Record high minimum temperature of 51°F for February at Salt Lake Airport.
19. Squall line with 119 mph gust at Park City ski area. Morgan County declared a disaster area as a result of flooding.
24. Avalanches closed Little Cottonwood Canyon in the afternoon.

1985

8. Very strong winds with blowing and drifting snow; many roads closed in Salt Salt Lake Valley. Buses and cars stranded. Wind gust at Park City to 105 mph.
9. Snow and avalanches. Skiers knocked down at Alta and near Brighton.
10. Dense fog in valleys.
12. Very slick roads due to light snow fall.
12-19. 8 consecutive days of dense fog with numerous auto accidents and 3 fatalities.

1984

10-11. Major snow storm with strong winds lead to numerous traffic accidents.
16-17 Another signficant snow storm with 1-2+ feet of snow in mountains.
18,19,21. Local dense fog.

Monitoring Weather Conditions along the Wasatch Front: The Utah Mesonet

Personnel: U. Utah: J. Stiff, J. Slemmer, M. Splitt, D. Judd. National Weather Service: L. Dunn, D. Zaff

project began during 1994

surface observations obtained from local, state, and federal agencies

considerable interaction with SLC NWSFO to operate and maintain

deployment of sensors as part of joint project with NWS Western Region and NSSL for high elevation radar project

expanded to include RWIS activities of Utah DOT

15 minute processing cycle

Quality control measures in place

On-line information:

Monitoring weather conditions at Olympic Venues

Assist in the installation of weather senors at venue sites
Retrieve, process, and archive in real time weather observations at venues
Develop web pages for Olympic personnel and public to access current weather and climate information
Olympic Weather
Wasatch Conditions
2002 Winter Olympics

Monitoring Weather Conditions Along the Wasatch Front: Utah ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS)

Personnel: C. Ciliberti & S. Lazarus

Develop local analysis at high temporal (1 h) and spatial resolution (2 km)

Provide near real-time high resolution data over the complex terrain of northwest Utah
Enhance nowcasting by NWS and state agencies

Based on the Oklahoma ADAS (ARPS Data Analysis System) developed by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)

Incorporation of large-scale and local data:

Rapid Update Cycle 2 (RUC-2) analysis used to initialize ADAS
Utah Mesonet, including more than 200 local stations, available at 15 minute intervals
NWS rawinsonde provides upper air data at 0 and 12 GMT
NWS WSR-88D velocity and reflectivity data obtained at 5-10 minute intervals

On-line information: ADAS

Future Research:

Incorporate other data streams (ACARS, GOES sounder, Dugway profiler)
Increase domain size
Use ADAS to initialize the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) to provide high resolution forecasts of mesoscale events

Forecasting Weather Conditions Along the Wasatch Front: Mesoscale Modeling with the PSU/NCAR MM5 Model

Personnel: J. Steenburgh & D. Onton

Real-time forecasts at 54/18 km resolution

On-line information: Real-time MM5 Forecasts

On-line information: Lake-effect Research MM5 Simulations

Planning Weather Support for the 2002 Winter Olympics

Venue activities:

Continue installation and maintenance of weather sensors at venue sites
Continue development of weather and climate data base for venue sites

Wasatch Region activities:

Expand weather planning to include transportation, security, and emergency management issues
Test and evaluate high resolution analysis and forecast system for the Olympic region
Test and evaluate high resolution forecast models

Olympic issues:

Who pays for weather support for planning and forecasting?
How should observing system be augmented for planning? for forecasting?
What are the staffing levels required at venues? at SLC NWSFO?