Overview of Research Activities

Ongoing Research Projects

climate simulations of the Mexican Monsoon (NOAA OGP)

validation of operational and research models (NSF)

planning for the 2002 Winter Olympics (NOAA CIRP)

continued development of Utah Mesonet (NWS COMET)

development of local analysis using ADAS (NOAA CIRP, UDOT)

Regional Climate Simulations of the Mexican Monsoon

Personnel: J. Pechmann and R. Swanson

develop MM5 model for regional climate modeling applications

• What controls the seasonal evolution of the monsoon circulation?
• What role do tropical storms play in the moisture budget of the region?
• How sensitive is the regional climate to interannual variations in SST?

Simulations completed for JJA 1990-1996

On-line information: PACS Research

References:

• Swanson, R., Jr., J. B. Pechmann, and J. D. Horel, 1998: Physical mechanisms and moisture sources for the Mexican Monsoon: Regional simulations over the eastern Pacific. Ninth Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere. Phoenix AZ
• Pechmann, J. B., 1998: Interannual variations in precipitation over the eastern Pacific: sensitivity to regional sea surface temperature. Ninth Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere. Phoenix AZ

Future Research:

• Complete simulations for JJA 1997
• Continue to assess sensitivity of regional simulations to horizontal resolution and physical parameterizations of surface moisture budget and convection

Validation of Operational and Research Models

Personnel: K. Cook, B. McDonald, B. White. Supervision by J. Steenburgh, J. Horel, and J. Paegle respectively

Evaluate forecast skill of operational and research mesoscale models in regions of complex terrain

• Eta model at all available resolutions (48, 29, and 10 km)
• MM5
• Utah LAM

Focus on validation of precipitation and 3-D circulation

On-line information:

• www.met.utah.edu/jimsteen/mm5_val/mm5_validation_page.html
• www.met.utah.edu/jimsteen/meso_val/meso_validation_page.html
• Eta Evaluation
• www.met.utah.edu/jpaegle/validation

References

• McDonald, B. E., J. D. Horel, W. J. Steenburgh, and C. J. Stiff, 1998: Observations and simulations of three downslope wind events over the northern Wasatch mountains. 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Phoenix, AZ
• McDonald, B. E., and J. D. Horel, 1998: Evaluation of precipitation forecasts from the NCEP's Nested Eta Model. 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Phoenix, AZ
• White, B. G., 1997: Short-term forecast validation of six models for winter 1996. University of Utah M.S. Thesis. 99 pp.
• White, B. G., W. J. Steenburgh, J. Paegle, J. D. Horel, R. T. Swanson, and J. Miles, 1998: Short-term forecast validation of six models for winter 1996 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Phoenix, AZ
• White, B. G., W. J. Steenburgh, J. Paegl, J. D. Horel, R. T. Swanson, and J. Miles, 1998: Short-term forecast validation of six models for winter 1996. Submitted to Wea. Forecasting

Future Research:

• Continue to evaluate skill of precipitation forecasts
• Assess model skill as a function of synoptic situation
• Evaluate techniques to objectively validate mesoscale models in regions of complex terrain

Planning for the 2002 Olympics

Assisting installation of automated weather sensors along Wasatch Mountains

Goals:

• Establish climatology based on several winter seasons of weather conditions near venue sites and tranportation corridors
• Develop climatologies of winter weather phenomena (lake effect, high wind, heavy snow, etc.) on synoptic, meso-, and local scales
• Develop capability to analyze and simulate weather conditions at Olympic venue sites & transportation corridors along Wasatch Front

On-line Information: SLOC

Utah Mesonet

Personnel: U. Utah: J. Stiff, J. Slemmer, M. Splitt. NWS: L. Dunn, D. Zaff

project began during 1994 with support from COMET

surface observations obtained from local, state, and federal agencies

considerable interaction with SLC NWSFO to operate and maintain

deployment of sensors as part of joint project with NWS Western Region and NSSL for high elevation radar project

expanded to include RWIS activities of Utah DOT

15 minute processing cycle

Quality control measures in place

On-line information: U. Utah, SLC NWSFO

References:

• Stiff, C. J., 1997: The Utah Mesonet. University of Utah M.S. Thesis. 120 pp.
• Splitt, M. E., and J. Horel, 1998: Use of multivariate linear regression for meteorological data analysis and quality assessment in complex terrain. Tenth Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation. Phoenix, AZ

Future Research:

• continue to seek additional networks of real time information
• develop further quality control procedures
• port files into WFO Advanced for use at the SLC NWSFO

Utah ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS)

Personnel: C. Ciliberti & S. Lazarus

Develop local analysis at high temporal (3 h) and spatial resolution (1 km)

• Provide near real-time high resolution data over the complex terrain of northwes t Utah
• Enhance local forecasting by NWS and state agencies

Based on the Oklahoma ADAS (ARPS Data Analysis System) developed by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)

Incorporation of large-scale and local data:

• Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analysis used to initialize ADAS
• Utah Mesonet, including more than 200 local stations, available at 15 minute int ervals
• NWS rawinsonde provides upper air data at 0 and 12 GMT
• NWS WSR-88D velocity and reflectivity data obtained at 5-10 minute intervals

Other ADAS features

• Bratseth interpolation scheme
• Radial wind observations overwrite radial component of background field
• Observations of high RH included where radar reflectivity exceeds critical thres hold
• Simple automated data quality control
• Option to use cloud water mixing ratio adjustment

On-line information: ADAS

References:

• Lazarus, S., C. Ciliberti, and J. Horel, 1998: Application of a local analysis system in highly variable terrain. 16th Weather and Forecasting Conference. Phoenix, AZ.

Future Research:

• Begin from RUC II at hourly intervals at higher spatial resolution
• Incorporate other data streams (ACARS, GOES sounder, Dugway profiler)
• Increase domain size
• Use ADAS to initialize the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) to provide high resolution forecasts of mesoscale events