SENSITIVITY OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST SKILL TO HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION

Figures:

• CHAPTER 2 - Observed Precipitation Data
  • Observed precipitation station locations
  • Observed precipitation 1200 UTC 18 January 1997 before quality control
  • Observed precipitation 1200 UTC 18 January 1997 after quality control
  • Observed precipitation 1200 UTC 25 January 1997
  • PRISM annual average precipitation

• CHAPTER 3 - Model Precipitation Forecasts
  • NGM terrain
  • NGM 24-h precipitation ending at 1200 UTC 25 January 1997
  • Eta terrain
  • Eta 24-h precipitation ending at 1200 UTC 25 January 1997
  • MesoEta terrain
  • MesoEta 24-h precipitation ending at 1200 UTC 25 January 1997
  • West terrain
  • West terrain over northern Utah
  • West 24-h precipitation ending at 1200 UTC 25 January 1997

• CHAPTER 4 - Verification
  • Mean errors
  • Mean absolute errors
  • Root-mean-squared errors
  • Mean errors and mean absolute errors according to forecast category
  • Bias scores
  • Venn diagram of the Threat Score
  • Threat scores
  • Venn diagram of the Equitable Threat Score
  • Sensitivity of ETS to forecasts and hits
  • Equitable threat scores
  • Comparison of ETS to Modified-range ETS (MRETS)
  • Modified-range equitable threat scores
  • MAE and ETS via the grid method
  • NGM forecast downscaled to West grid and West forecast upscaled to NGM grid
  • NGM and West MAE and ETS on each other's native grid
  • NGM forecast downscaled to West grid and redistributed according to PRISM
  • Eta forecast downscaled to West grid and redistributed according to PRISM
  • MesoEta forecast downscaled to West grid and redistributed according to PRISM
  • MAE and ETS with 0.10 inch observational uncertainty

• CHAPTER 5 - Results
  • Mean absolute errors for winter 1997
  • Murphy skill scores for winter 1997 according to observed and forecast categories
  • Murphy skill scores for winter 1997 at station locations for NGM PRISM and West forecasts
  • Equitable threat scores for winter 1997
  • Ratio of ETS to NGM PRISM ETS for winter 1997
  • Murphy skill scores for spring 1997 at station locations for NGM PRISM and West forecasts
  • Equitable threat scores for spring 1997
  • Verification domain, subdomains, and quadrants
  • Equitable threat scores for winter 1997 in west and east subdomains
  • Ratio of ETS to NGM PRISM ETS for winter 1997 in west and east subdomains
  • Daily anomaly pattern correlation scores for winter 1997
  • Daily anomaly pattern correlation scores for spring 1997
  • West 24-h precipitation forecast valid at 1200 UTC 06 June 1997 over northern Utah
  • Daily Murphy skill scores for winter 1997