This simple exercise is intended to quantify the skill of weather forecasts made by the National Weather Service, TV broadcasters, local newspapers, etc. In addition, the decrease in skill as the forecast duration is increased may become evident.

• Obtain forecasts of maximum and minimum temperature and probability of precipitation for Salt Lake City from three sources. The forecast should be made by 11PM valid the following 3 successive days.
• Compare the forecasts to that observed at Salt Lake City from the NWS daily climate summary. You will need to access this file at roughly the same time each day.

  Enter your response to each question in the blanks provided. The cursor has to be in the box in order to enter a response. Be sure to fill out all of the fields.
  Then click submit when you are finished to hand in your answers.

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  YOUR NAME
  YOUR EMAIL
  ASSIGNMENT #

  Monitoring Forecast Skill
  

  1. Describe briefly the weather observed in the Salt Lake Valley during the three day period.

  2. What sort of information do you expect was used to make the weather forecasts by the three sources?

  3. How much variation in the forecasts was observed on the first day? Second ? third?

  3. Describe the skill of the forecasts made over the 3 day period. Was one source more credible than another?

  Due Date September 29, 2000 Click to hand in your answers.