Problem 1:
Using Black (1994) and the following web pages that contain more recent
information concerning operational NWP:
Problem 2:
Problem 3:
Minimum Temperature | Damage |
---|---|
Above 32 | $0 |
30-32 | $2,000 |
27-29 | $20,000 |
23-26 | $100,000 |
Below 23 | $1,000,000 |
Using your knowledge of probabalistic meteorology and cost/benefit analysis,
create a formula that, given probabilities of the minimum temperature being
in each category above, will determine whether or not it is
cost effective to operate the wind generating machinery. Assume the orchard
grower has defined his acceptable cost/loss ratio as 50%. How might you use
this formula to provide a better product for your customer? What are some
of the major strengths and weaknesses of determining yes/no decisions
(such as whether or not to operate this equipment) with this type of
approach?