Meteorology 5540
Mini-Lecture 1: The Role of the Weather Forecaster
I. Pre-computer era (pre late-1950's)
- Relied solely on observations, conceptual models, and experience
- Linear extrapolation (no model dynamics!)
- Pattern recognition
II. Advent of the computer model (late-1950's and 1960's)
- Operational "equivalent barotropic" model ~1955
- NMC created in 1960
- Six-layer, Primitive Equation Model ~1966
- Man/machine forecast integration begins
III. The statistical era (1970's)
- LFM (Limited-area Fine-mesh Model) becomes operational in 1971
- Development of Perfect Prog and Model Output Statistics (MOS)
- Man/MOS competition begins
- Humans continue to significantly improve on computer model output
by adding mesoscale information to course resolution NWP forecast
guidance
IV. Integration of man and machine (1980-late 1990's)
- Increased model resolution allows for realistic simulations of
synoptic and mesoscale weather phenomenon and improving model
skill.
- 80 km, 38 level NGM model becomes operational in 1985
- 29 km, 50+ level meso-ETA model becomes operational in 1996
- NWP model guidance becomes the primary forecast tool,
particularly on synoptic time scales.
- "Model of the day" approach becomes popular
- Accurate predictions of Superstorm 1993 represent a crowning
achievement of the era
- NEXRAD radars become an important forecast tools in short
range forecasting and the prediction of severe weather.
- Humans continue to improve on machine generated forecasts,
but the gap narrows
V. The probabalistic era (late 1990's - 2010)
- Model forecast skill will no longer improve significantly
with increased model resolution
- Improvements in global observing system will be needed to
improve >12 hour forecasts.
- Ensemble techniques will be used on mesoscale and synoptic
scale time and spatial scales.
- Humans will focus on short range forecasting while computer based
techniques dominate medium range forecasting.
- The information age will likely bring about significant
changes in how we disseminate weather information and forecasts
to the public.
Recommended Reading:
Uccellini, L. W., P. J. Kocin, and J. M. Sienkiewicz, 1994: Advances
in forecasting extratropical cyclogenesis at the National Meteorological
Center. Preprints, Int. Symp. on the Life Cycles of Extratropical
Cyclones, Vol. I, Bergen, Norway, Geophysical Institute, University
of Bergen, 259-274.
Updated April 25, 1997