I. Forecasting Tools

A. Climatology

B. Observations

Your own two eyes!
Conventional surface and upper-air observations
Mesonets
Wind profilers and acoustic sounders
NEXRAD radar
Satelite imagery (e.g., IR, WV, VIS, FOG, etc...)
3-D and 4-D data assimilation systems (e.g., RUC, LAPS)
"Weather Cams"

B. Forecast models
MRF and AVN global forecast models
MRF ensembles
NGM, early-ETA, meso-ETA limited area forecast models
Non-NCEP models (ECMWF, UKMET, University based RAMS, MM5, and MASS)

C. Statistics
Perfect Prog
MOS
Ensembles

• Transfer and synthesis of meteorological information into the human mind.
• Conceptual models remain important

• Humans continue to improve on computer based forecasting, particularly in short range.
• NWP model forecasts remain forecast guidance!
• Model of the Day approaches are popular
• Understand model biases, weaknesses, strengths and predictability issues
• Understand stregths and weaknesses of statistical and other forecast techniques
• Add value to the model forecasts (unresolved spatial scales, physical processes etc...)
• Tailor weather forecasts or information for the end user

• Written and oral communication skills a must
• Constant struggle with how to communicate difficult weather scenarios and forecast issues to the public
• Problems with communicating with your customer (partly sunny... what does it mean, etc...)
• Worded forecasts haven't changed in 150 years
• New computer aided approaches are coming on-line
• Information age brings lots of potential for advances in this area