FNUS75 KBOU 082233 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR OLD STAGE FIRE...BOULDER COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 330 PM MST THU JAN 8 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES OF STRONG GUSTS AFTER ABOUT 2100. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 0400 AND 0800 ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BE LIGHTER FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...THEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY WITH HUMIDITIES STEADY OR POSSIBLY RISING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....LOWERING TO 45 AT 2400...MIN 36-40. MAX HUMIDITY........RISING TO 35% AT 2400...MAX 43-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-20 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 0400. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH MAINLY BEFORE 2100 AND AGAIN AFTER 0300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 0300. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 2100 AND 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-42. MIN HUMIDITY........33-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 12-20 MPH BECOMING NORTH BY 1200. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20-25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL RISING TO 6000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-24. MAX HUMIDITY........38-44%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 10-18 MPH BECOMING WEST AFTER 2400. GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 2400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL LOWERING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-44. MIN HUMIDITY........16-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12-22 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 12-22 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR OLD STAGE FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 01/08-15 58 0 64 17 W 23 1 4370 W 35 132470 V 01/08-16 58 0 60 19 W 23 1 3951 W 32 111621 V 01/08-17 58 0 57 21 W 18 25 4 1 W43 3533 W 30 90773 G 01/08-18 58 0 54 23 W 17 1 2742 W 29 70014 G 01/08-19 58 0 51 27 W 17 1 1951 W 29 49256 F 01/08-20 58 0 48 30 W 18 25 3 1 W49 1160 W 29 28497 P 01/08-21 20 0 45 32 W 18 1 953 W 29 23812 P 01/08-22 20 0 44 34 W 18 1 746 W 30 19127 P 01/08-23 20 10 42 36 W 18 26 3 1 W56 540 W 31 14441 P 01/09-00 20 10 41 38 W 18 1 480 W 29 12336 P 01/09-01 47 10 40 40 W 18 1 421 W 28 10230 P 01/09-02 47 10 39 41 W 18 25 2 1 W64 361 W 25 8124 P 01/09-03 47 10 38 45 W 20 1 612 W 28 15388 P 01/09-04 47 10 38 49 W 21 1 863 W 29 22652 P 01/09-05 74 10 37 52 W 22 31 2 1 W52 1114 W 31 29916 P 01/09-06 74 10 37 53 W 17 1 1717 W 29 39679 P 01/09-07 74 10 37 52 NW 13 1 2320 W 25 49443 F 01/09-08 74 10 37 49 NW 10 10 2 1 W30 2923 NW 23 59206 F 01/09-09 74 10 38 44 NW 10 1 4354 NW 21 73211 G 01/09-10 74 10 40 39 NW 12 1 5786 NW 18 87217 G 01/09-11 84 10 40 37 NW 14 20 2 1 W21 7217 NW 16 101222 V 01/09-12 84 10 40 36 NW 15 1 7533 NW 16 104565 V 01/09-13 84 10 40 35 NW 15 1 7849 NW 16 107907 V 01/09-14 84 10 39 36 NW 15 21 2 1 NW14 8165 NW 16 111249 V 01/09-15 84 10 37 37 NW 14 1 7039 NW 16 97473 G 01/09-16 84 10 35 38 NW 13 1 5913 NW 16 83697 G 01/09-17 74 10 33 40 NW 12 12 3 1 N20 4788 NW 17 69920 G 01/09-18 74 10 32 42 NW 9 1 5796 NW 21 108307 V 01/09-19 74 10 30 43 NW 7 1 5340 NW 20 91757 G 01/09-20 74 10 28 43 W 6 6 2 1 N31 4883 NW 17 75208 G 01/09-21 74 10 27 43 W 7 1 3952 NW 16 57783 F 01/09-22 74 10 26 43 SW 9 1 3021 W 14 40358 F 01/09-23 58 1 25 43 SW 10 10 2 1 N29 2089 W 13 22933 P 01/10-00 58 1 24 43 SW 10 1 1799 W 14 20554 P 01/10-01 58 1 23 43 W 10 1 1508 W 14 18175 P 01/10-02 58 1 22 43 W 10 10 3 1 NW33 1218 W 15 15797 P 01/10-03 58 1 22 43 W 8 1 1175 W 15 15610 P 01/10-04 58 1 22 43 W 7 1 1132 W 16 15423 P 01/10-05 36 0 21 42 W 7 7 4 1 NW37 1090 W 16 15236 P 01/10-06 36 0 21 42 W 8 1 1203 W 17 18049 P 01/10-07 36 0 22 41 W 12 1 1317 W 18 20862 P 01/10-08 36 0 25 36 W 14 20 3 1 NW36 1430 W 20 23675 P 01/10-09 36 0 29 31 W 15 1 2106 W 21 38550 P 01/10-10 36 0 32 27 W 15 1 2782 W 22 53425 F 01/10-11 36 0 35 24 W 15 21 2 1 NW33 3458 W 23 68299 G 01/10-12 36 0 38 21 W 16 1 3969 W 24 84555 G 01/10-13 36 0 40 19 W 17 1 4481 W 25 100811 V 01/10-14 36 0 40 18 W 17 24 2 1 NW44 4993 W 26 117067 V 01/10-15 36 0 40 18 W 16 1 4581 W 28 107814 V 01/10-16 36 0 38 19 W 15 1 4170 W 28 98562 G 01/10-17 33 0 34 22 W 14 20 2 1 NW54 3758 W 28 89309 G 01/10-18 33 0 31 24 W 16 1 3185 W 26 73768 G 01/10-19 33 0 29 26 W 21 1 2613 W 25 58227 F 01/10-20 33 0 28 28 W 23 32 2 1 NW55 2040 W 24 42686 F 01/10-21 33 0 26 30 W 23 1 1625 W 23 33116 P 01/10-22 33 0 24 32 W 22 1 1210 W 22 23546 P 01/10-23 33 0 23 34 W 20 28 2 1 NW55 795 W 21 13977 P 01/11-00 33 0 22 36 W 18 1 630 W 20 10810 P 01/11-01 33 0 21 38 W 17 1 465 W 18 7642 P 01/11-02 33 0 20 39 W 16 23 2 1 NW64 299 W 17 4475 P 01/11-03 33 0 20 39 W 15 1 283 W 17 4184 P 01/11-04 33 0 19 40 W 14 1 268 W 17 3893 P 01/11-05 44 0 19 40 W 14 20 2 1 NW74 252 W 16 3602 P 01/11-06 44 0 19 40 W 14 1 286 W 16 4043 P 01/11-07 44 0 20 39 W 14 1 319 W 16 4484 P 01/11-08 44 0 24 33 W 14 20 2 1 NW69 353 W 16 4925 P 01/11-09 44 0 29 27 W 14 1 1774 W 20 40625 F 01/11-10 44 0 33 23 W 14 1 3196 NW 24 76325 G 01/11-11 44 0 38 20 W 13 17 2 1 NW64 4618 NW 28 112024 V 01/11-12 44 0 41 17 NW 12 1 5168 NW 28 125912 V 01/11-13 44 0 44 16 NW 9 1 5718 NW 28 139800 V 01/11-14 44 0 45 16 NW 8 8 2 1 NW60 6269 NW 29 153688 E 01/11-15 44 0 44 16 NW 7 1 5835 NW 25 131798 V 01/11-16 44 0 42 18 SW 5 1 5401 NW 23 109909 V 01/11-17 52 0 38 22 SW 3 3 2 1 NW55 4967 NW 21 88019 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...DREW PETERSEN REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090108.OLDST.02/BOU