FNUS73 KAPX 121358
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR PILE BURN KINGS CORNER...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
858 AM EST MON JAN 12 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EST ON JANUARY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.  SKIES WILL BY MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH
A FEW SNOW FLURRIES.  MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TODAY TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED FLURRIES.
TEMPERATURE.........20 AT IGNITION...MAX 25.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST
                    AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2300-2900
                    FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF SNOW.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 6.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-2700 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100).

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SNOW EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING. BLOWING SNOW IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 8.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH
                    BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 24 TO 33 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 31
                    TO 36 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1200).

$$
FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS
REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090112.PILEB.01/APX