FNUS72 KMHX 171454 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSE PEN RD BURN...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 954 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EST ON JANUARY 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY AND OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFFSHORE TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONCERNING SMOKE DISPERSION...THINK MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS WOULD LEAD TO DECENT DISPERSION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BY MID AFTERNOON TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND AS THE MIXING HEIGHT LOWERS LATE SMOKE DISPERSION WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36. MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH...BECOMING EAST AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 7 MPH LATE. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........0 3 14 28 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............29 34 35 35 RH..............35 27 26 33 20 FT WIND......N 5 NE 5 E 2 SE 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 7 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSION....VERY POOR TO STAGNANT. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........35 41 47 53 55 56 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............33 32 30 29 29 28 RH..............38 45 60 69 72 81 20 FT WIND......SE 0 S 0 S 0 SW 0 SW 1 SW 2 20 FT WIND GUST. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1400-2400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 18 TO 24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........56 58 63 69 72 81 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN TEMP............28 29 40 45 50 49 RH..............92 96 70 62 54 61 20 FT WIND......SW 3 SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...FREDERICK REQUESTED BY...JAMES CHERRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090117.HORSE.01/MHX