FNUS73 KPAH 180355
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR TRAIL OF TEARS PRESCRIBED FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
955 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS ONLY GO OUT ABOUT 48 HOURS WITH ANY
DETAIL, AND OUR SOFTWARE IS NOT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A DETAILED
TABULAR FORECAST THAT FAR OUT, SO THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE
FORM OF AN OUTLOOK IN FREE FORM.  LET ME FIRST SAY THAT THE MODELS WE
BASE OUR FORECASTS ON HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN THE DETAILS IN THE FIRST
DAY OF THE FORECAST LATELY, SO CONFIDENCE 3-4 DAYS OUT IS VERY LOW.

IN GENERAL, WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A LARGE AND DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN IT WILL FINALLY BE TRYING TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.  SEVERAL PERIODS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY MORNING, AND A DUSTING OF
SNOW MAY BE ON THE GROUND AT THE BURN SITE TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, BUT SKIES WILL BE TRYING TO CLEAR
OUT THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS IS ONE THING THAT THE MODELS ARE HORRIBLE
WITH, ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT, AND IT COULD HAVE TREMENDOUS IMPACTS
ON THE TEMPERATURE AND RH FORECASTS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10KTS, AND
SHOULD TREND WEAKER AND MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 80% AT IGNITION TIME, AND IS
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE TEMPERATURE
AT IGNITION TIME WILL BE AROUND 25 F, AND IS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT NEAR
39 F AROUND 3 PM.  THIS IS ASSUMING THAT THE SKY IS ABLE TO CLEAR
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY.  IF IT DOES NOT, TEMPERATURE AND RH
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THOSE MORNING VALUES.

FORECASTER...SPAETH

$$

REQUESTED BY...BOB GILLESPIE
REASON FOR REQUEST...UNDER THE INTERAGENCY AGREEMENT FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES (USFS, BLM, NPS, U