FNUS72 KJAX 181400
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR 019 NORWALK...USFS LAKE GEORGE R.D.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0915 EST ON JANUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...DISPERSION
VALUES ABOVE 75 WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WARM AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT. MONDAY...RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH RED
FLAGS ARE NOT FORECAST...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN DRIVE DISPERSION
VALUES ABOVE 75 FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FIRE WEATHER REGION.

A SECONDARY...ALBEIT DRIER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE ON MONDAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PREVENT RH VALUES FROM REACHING
CRITICAL LEVELS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION...USHERING IN EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS.


.TODAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-4400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 23 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....82.

TIME (EST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........36     33     52     52     58
WEATHER COV.....              CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............40     53     61     63     61
RH..............90     65     50     47     54
20 FT WIND......SW 6   SW 10  SW 14  SW 15  SW 15
20 FT WIND GUST.15     25     30     25     25
MIX HGT (FT)....500    2300   4100   4100   2500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 15  SW 23  SW 29  SW 29  SW 26
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     30     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1


.TONIGHT...

MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-700 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....6.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
RH..............55     71     82     84     83     81
20 FT WIND......SW 12  SW 10  SW 9   SW 7   SW 7   W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     15     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2700   1000   700    700    400    500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 22  SW 17  SW 13  SW 13  SW 8   W 6

$$
FORECASTER...ZIBURA
REQUESTED BY...MARK PLOSKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090118.019NO.01/JAX