FNUS74 KOUN 211354
FWSOUN

SPOT FORECAST FOR MANAGEMENT UNIT...US FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
754 AM CST WED JAN 21 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON JANUARY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL FRONT IS LOCATED THIS MORNING FROM NEAR PONCA CITY TO
LAWTON AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE MAIN EFFECT
FOR THE FIRE AREA WILL BE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO A SOUTHWEST WIND BY IGNITION TIME
AND THEN TO A WEST WIND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW /FALLING
TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT BY NOON/ BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. A STEEP INVERSION THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
MIXING HEIGHTS LOW EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL RISE IN THE
MIXING HEIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVING A CHANCE TO
WARM UP PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. RH SHOULD STILL BE HIGHER THAN
WED/THU. DISAGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND FRIDAY
MAKES THE FORECAST QUITE UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IF TEMPS START TO
WARM UP MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF WILL PROBABLY BE INVOLVED AS
WELL...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49 AT IGNITION...MAX 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 20 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH
                    UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-1900 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2200-2500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (CST)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM
SKY (%).........CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............49     60     63     62     53     46
RH..............31     22     21     27     43     58
20 FT WIND......SW 7   W 6    W 5    SW 2   SW 0   NW 0
20 FT WIND GUST.10
MIX HGT (FT)....1200   1900   2400   2500   1600   300
MIX HGT (M).....370    580    730    760    490    90
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12   W 9    NW 9   W 6    W 3    S 2
TRAN WIND (M/S).W 5    W 4    NW 4   W 3    W 1    S 1

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 76 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 5 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 22 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1500-2400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15
                    TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...SPEHEGER
REQUESTED BY...HOWARD BOSS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090121.MANAG.02/OUN