FNUS72 KILM 221409 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR CALF ISLAND...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 909 AM EST THU JAN 22 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EST ON JANUARY 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... NEAR CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY...ENDING UP ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51. MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2200-3100 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-43100 KNOT-FT). IT WILL BECOME GOOD ONCE THE SURFACE BASED INVERSION BREAKS LATER THIS MORNING. TIME (EST) NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TEMP............44 50 48 RH..............37 31 33 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 7 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2300 3100 2200 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 SW 13 SW 17 .TONIGHT... MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26. MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE NEAR SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-33700 KNOT-FT). LOWER DISPERSAL VALUES ONCE THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM TEMP............41 36 33 31 30 29 RH..............45 59 69 78 83 85 MIX HGT (FT)....2200 400 300 300 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 SW 17 S 3 S 0 S 0 S 0 .FRIDAY... WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 11 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 2 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-39100 KNOT-FT). DISPERSAL IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 20 FT WIND......SW 2 SW 4 SW 6 SW 8 SW 9 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 1100 1100 2200 2200 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 3 SW 15 SW 15 SW 20 SW 20 $$ FORECASTER...PFAFF REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090122.CALFI.01/ILM