FNUS73 KEAX 041709 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER BLUFF...MDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1109 AM CST WED FEB 4 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CST ON FEBRUARY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT BUT MAY GUST UP TO 10 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL SURGE INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. READINGS ON THURSDAY WILL WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S NEAR KIRKSVILLE TO THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR KANSAS CITY. READINGS WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR ON BOTH DAYS LEADING TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACHING 30 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35-40 MPH ON FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN DURING THESE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIXING CONDITIONS...RH VALUES ON THURSDAY MAY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. MOISTURE WILL TRY TO STREAM NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S PRODUCING SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S. THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST SATURDAY WHICH SAW NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. AT THIS TIME BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN FIRE DANGER AND ALL BURNING IS DISCOURAGED DUE TO THE VERY DRY GRASS IN THE REGION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32. MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-2900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........10 14 21 24 23 22 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............26 29 31 32 30 28 RH..............41 37 34 34 38 42 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 3 3 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 22. MAX HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........21 20 18 16 13 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............26 24 23 22 22 22 23 24 24 25 26 26 RH..............47 51 55 60 61 61 62 63 63 63 64 65 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 22 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 26 TO 29 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............27 29 31 33 39 46 52 57 61 62 62 61 RH..............65 64 63 62 51 42 36 31 28 28 29 31 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..14 15 17 18 20 21 22 22 22 21 20 18 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...DEROCHE REQUESTED BY...JOSH SHROYER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090204.DEEPW.01/EAX