FNUS72 KMHX 071409 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR LOOP ROAD...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 909 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0910 EST ON FEBRUARY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... TOOK A CLOSE LOOK AT THE VENTILATION RATE AS REQUESTED. BASED ON FORECAST AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 1800-2000 FT IN THE BURN AREA TODAY. TRANSPORT WINDS SOUTHWEST @15 MPH YIELDED VENTILATION RATES OF 27000-30000 THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE S/SE OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH A SLOW RECOVERY IN RH VALUES EXPECTED. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE N/NE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............47 52 54 58 60 61 60 59 58 RH..............64 49 43 40 36 36 42 45 55 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 15 15 15 15 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40. MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1900 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSION.....FAIR. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........0 0 1 2 2 3 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............55 51 47 45 44 43 RH..............55 66 76 79 79 82 20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 5 SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 10 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400-4000 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 20 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........5 5 6 7 10 17 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............42 44 56 62 67 66 RH..............82 76 49 39 36 43 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 5 W 6 W 7 W 7 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 15 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 3 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...JAMES CHERRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090207.LOOPR.01/MHX