FNUS74 KLIX 092152 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR OLD FORT BAYOU FIRE...U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 352 PM CST MON FEB 9 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU REQUIRE FURTHER INFORMATION...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF BECOMING LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH. A WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDING QUESTIONS... 1...FOG POTENTIAL...NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT SUFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. AS NOTED YESTERDAY...IF WINDS DO CALM SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW WHAT IS FORECAST...A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY. 2...RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL START DURING MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE FIRE IS LOCATED FARTHER EAST IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BLEED OVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. FORECASTING A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR AN AREA AVERAGE OF ABOUT ONE QUARTER INCH. THIS WILL VARY A BIT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SET UP. COULD BE AS LITTLE AS ONE TENTH OR AS MUCH AS ONE HALF INCH. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT UNLESS MORE THAN ONE THUNDERSTORM WITH MODERATE RAINFALL RATES MOVES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE POSSIBLE. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...THE DURATION SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW HOURS. 3...HUMIDITY DIFFERENCES...BASED ON FEEDBACK IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BIAS...HAVE DECREASED DEWPOINT AND RH VALUES SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA. HOPEFULLY THESE NEW VALUES WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS. 4...WIND SPEEDS...LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BEGIN DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME CALM. A FEW GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TUESDAY THAN TODAY. .TONIGHT... TIME (CST) 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........70 70 70 70 71 71 71 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............68 65 63 62 60 59 58 RH..............63 68 78 82 88 90 92 20 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 8 SE 8 SE 7 SE 7 SE 6 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 15 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 10 SE 8 SE 8 SE 7 SE 7 SE 6 SE 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..20 15 15 15 15 10 10 MIX HGT (FT-AGL)3700 2800 2800 1900 1100 1100 900 MIX HGT (M-AGL).1130 850 850 580 340 340 270 TRAN WIND (MPH).S 18 S 28 S 28 S 30 S 31 S 31 S 31 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 8 S 13 S 13 S 13 S 14 S 14 S 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 20 .TUESDAY... TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........71 71 71 71 71 71 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............58 61 67 71 72 70 RH..............96 93 79 67 65 66 20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 6 SE 10 SE 12 SE 13 SE 13 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 20 20 25 25 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 5 SE 6 SE 10 SE 12 SE 13 SE 13 EYE LEVEL WIND..10 10 20 20 25 25 MIX HGT (FT-AGL)700 700 1400 3100 3100 2000 MIX HGT (M-AGL).210 210 430 940 940 610 TRAN WIND (MPH).S 30 S 30 S 29 S 29 S 29 S 30 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 13 S 13 S 13 S 13 S 13 S 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...SAMI GRAY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090209.OLDFO.01/LIX 95/DM