FNUS72 KJAX 111030 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR BURN SCHOOL...DOF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 530 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE DISPERSION INDICES TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. WEAKER WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH OR LESS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 35 PERCENT...WITH BRIEF (IF ANY) DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 14 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 14 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 24 TO 26 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....78. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........34 34 36 41 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............65 73 77 77 RH..............76 57 51 53 20 FT WIND......S 10 S 15 S 17 S 17 20 FT WIND GUST.20 30 30 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 2500 4400 4600 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 24 S 26 SW 24 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57. MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1200 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 16 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO 14 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DISPERSION INDEX....12. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........41 46 55 55 63 57 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 66 64 62 61 59 RH..............66 81 87 90 92 91 20 FT WIND......SW 12 SW 10 SW 12 SW 9 SW 8 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4600 1200 800 800 500 500 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 24 SW 20 SW 16 SW 16 SW 14 W 12 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 40 40 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-3700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....56. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...ZAPPE REQUESTED BY...BARRY COULLIETTE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090211.BURNS.01/JAX