FNUS74 KLIX 112001 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR OLD FORT BAYOU FIRE...U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 201 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND. REGARDING QUESTIONS... 1 - WINDS...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL BE CALM FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 2 - FOG POTENTIAL...WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS...LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE FOG AS MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT. 3 - CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT...BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SAY FOR SURE WHETHER THIS WILL PAN OUT. AMOUNTS AND DURATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. .TODAY... TIME (CST) 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........93 64 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE TEMP............69 68 RH..............76 63 20 FT WIND......SW 6 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 6 W 6 EYE LEVEL WIND..12 10 MIX HGT (FT-AGL)2800 2600 MIX HGT (M-AGL).850 790 TRAN WIND (MPH).SW 38 W 29 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 17 W 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 0 .TONIGHT... TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........5 5 5 5 5 10 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............67 58 55 53 51 49 RH..............52 64 69 71 74 80 20 FT WIND......W 4 NW 2 NW 2 NW 1 CALM CALM 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..W 4 NW 2 NW 2 NW 1 CALM CALM EYE LEVEL WIND..5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT-AGL)1600 1600 1100 700 700 500 MIX HGT (M-AGL).490 490 340 210 210 150 TRAN WIND (MPH).W 18 W 18 NW 15 N 14 N 14 N 15 TRAN WIND (M/S).W 8 W 8 NW 7 N 6 N 6 N 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 .THURSDAY... TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........19 19 20 23 23 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............47 53 63 69 69 68 RH..............86 71 54 45 47 49 20 FT WIND......NE 2 NE 4 NE 5 E 4 E 3 E 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..NE 2 NE 4 NE 5 E 4 E 3 E 3 EYE LEVEL WIND..5 5 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT-AGL)400 400 1500 3600 3600 2600 MIX HGT (M-AGL).120 120 460 1100 1100 790 TRAN WIND (MPH).NE 15 NE 15 NE 12 E 8 E 8 E 8 TRAN WIND (M/S).NE 7 NE 7 NE 5 E 4 E 4 E 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...SAMI GRAY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090211.OLDFO.01/LIX 95/DM