FNUS71 KRNK 112332
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR STULL RUN FIRE...U. S. FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
632 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1850 EST ON FEBRUARY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY
NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. A STRONG AND FAST
MOVING TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND COULD DROP HUMIDITY
LEVELS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN TO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING FIRE DANGER. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 16 TO 21 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 40 TO 49 MPH...BECOMING WEST 43 TO 51
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........81     78     63     57     54     54
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
TEMP............65     58     55     54     52     49
RH..............56     66     72     65     62     66
20 FT WIND......S 13   S 12   W 12   W 15   W 17   W 17
20 FT WIND GUST.40     40     35     45     50     55

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 22 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
                    MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 39 TO 47 MPH...INCREASING TO 49 TO 51 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........38     30     29     27     21     10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............46     45     51     54     57     59
RH..............63     55     39     32     28     26
20 FT WIND......W 18   W 18   W 18   W 18   W 18   W 18
20 FT WIND GUST.55     50     50     50     50     50

$$
FORECASTER...HUDGINS
REQUESTED BY...GWJ NF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090211.STULL.02/RNK