FNUS75 KBOU 121449 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SUGARLOAF 109...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 738 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE BURN SITE LATER TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL IMPROVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT SMOKE DISPERSION SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE HOURS OF GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1100 AND 1500 TODAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE EXPECTED. ANY SNOW LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END BEFORE NOON...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1300...THEN CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....32. MIN HUMIDITY........34-38%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-11 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN EAST 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5000-6000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....12. MAX HUMIDITY........98%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 7-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST 5-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST UP TO 8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 200-800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....25. MIN HUMIDITY........57%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5-9 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTH 5-6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 4-5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. GOOD AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 12. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .PRESIDENTS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SUGARLOAF 109. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/12-07 42 0 15 65 W 10 1 760 W 8 4802 P 02/12-08 42 0 18 59 W 9 9 2 1 W58 860 SW 6 3960 P 02/12-09 42 0 23 49 SW 7 1 2653 SW 8 28971 P 02/12-10 42 0 28 42 SE 6 1 4447 SW 12 53983 F 02/12-11 74 13 30 39 E 5 5 2 1 W61 6241 SW 12 78994 G 02/12-12 74 13 32 38 E 5 1 6174 S 13 74472 G 02/12-13 74 13 32 40 E 6 1 6107 S 12 69949 G 02/12-14 74 13 32 40 E 7 7 2 1 SW66 6039 S 11 65426 G 02/12-15 74 13 31 42 E 7 1 5584 SE 11 56003 F 02/12-16 74 13 28 47 E 7 1 5128 SE 10 46579 F 02/12-17 98 67 24 58 E 7 7 2 1 SW44 4672 SE 9 37155 P 02/12-18 98 67 20 71 E 6 1 3412 SE 7 25731 P 02/12-19 98 67 18 82 NE 5 1 2151 SE 6 14306 P 02/12-20 98 67 17 90 NE 3 3 2 1 SW38 891 E 3 2882 P 02/12-21 98 67 16 94 NE 3 1 687 E 2 1948 P 02/12-22 98 67 16 94 NE 3 1 482 CALM 1015 P 02/12-23 97 49 15 96 NE 5 5 3 1 SW33 278 CALM 81 P 02/13-00 97 49 14 97 NE 5 1 292 NW 2 522 P 02/13-01 97 49 13 98 N 6 1 306 NW 3 962 P 02/13-02 97 49 14 92 N 6 6 2 1 W21 320 NW 5 1402 P 02/13-03 97 49 13 88 N 6 1 289 NW 7 1626 P 02/13-04 97 49 14 80 NW 7 1 259 NW 9 1850 P 02/13-05 73 56 12 77 NW 7 7 3 1 W13 297 NW 12 2978 P 02/13-06 73 56 12 76 NW 7 1 311 NW 12 2998 P 02/13-07 73 56 12 76 NW 6 1 326 NW 10 3018 P 02/13-08 73 56 12 78 NW 6 6 3 1 W25 340 NW 10 3039 P 02/13-09 73 56 16 69 N 5 1 1949 NW 13 27585 P 02/13-10 73 56 21 61 NE 5 1 3557 NW 15 52131 F 02/13-11 73 20 23 59 NE 3 3 2 1 W16 5166 NW 17 76677 G 02/13-12 73 20 25 57 E 2 1 5254 W 17 76370 G 02/13-13 73 20 25 58 CALM 1 5343 W 16 76063 G 02/13-14 73 20 25 57 CALM 0 2 1 W18 5431 W 16 75756 G 02/13-15 73 20 24 59 CALM 1 5108 W 16 71080 G 02/13-16 73 20 22 65 CALM 1 4784 W 16 66403 G 02/13-17 85 20 19 75 S 2 2 2 1 W25 4461 W 16 61727 G 02/13-18 85 20 16 84 S 2 1 3480 W 14 45332 F 02/13-19 85 20 15 88 SW 2 1 2498 W 12 28938 P 02/13-20 85 20 14 88 W 2 2 2 1 W36 1517 SW 9 12544 P 02/13-21 85 20 13 88 W 2 1 1234 SW 8 9260 P 02/13-22 85 20 13 83 W 3 1 951 SW 6 5975 P 02/13-23 85 20 13 80 W 3 3 2 1 W40 668 SW 5 2691 P 02/14-00 85 20 12 80 W 5 1 840 SW 5 3530 P 02/14-01 85 20 12 81 W 6 1 1011 SW 5 4369 P 02/14-02 85 20 13 76 W 6 6 2 1 W45 1183 SW 5 5208 P 02/14-03 85 20 13 75 W 6 1 966 SW 5 4042 P 02/14-04 85 20 13 74 W 5 1 750 SW 5 2877 P 02/14-05 81 39 12 74 W 3 3 2 1 SW52 534 SW 3 1712 P 02/14-06 81 39 12 80 W 2 1 499 SW 3 1658 P 02/14-07 81 39 11 88 CALM 1 464 SW 3 1604 P 02/14-08 81 39 13 85 CALM 1 2 1 SW31 428 SW 5 1550 P 02/14-09 81 39 17 70 S 2 1 1929 SW 10 34269 P 02/14-10 81 39 21 58 SE 3 1 3431 SW 17 66988 G 02/14-11 81 39 24 51 SE 5 5 2 1 SW36 4932 SW 23 99707 G 02/14-12 81 39 25 50 S 5 1 4964 SW 23 99038 G 02/14-13 81 39 25 51 SW 5 1 4996 W 23 98368 G 02/14-14 81 39 25 53 W 5 5 3 1 W32 5028 W 22 97699 G 02/14-15 81 39 25 53 W 5 1 4249 W 22 81366 G 02/14-16 81 39 23 59 W 6 1 3470 W 22 65033 G 02/14-17 85 28 20 63 W 7 7 3 1 W24 2691 W 21 48700 F 02/14-18 85 28 17 72 W 10 1 2448 W 25 51529 F 02/14-19 85 28 16 77 W 15 1 2205 W 29 54358 F 02/14-20 85 28 16 80 W 20 31 2 1 SW 8 1962 W 33 57187 F 02/14-21 85 28 15 82 W 24 1 1837 W 36 57132 F 02/14-22 85 28 15 81 W 28 1 1712 W 39 57076 F 02/14-23 66 23 14 81 W 30 48 3 1 SW15 1587 W 41 57020 F 02/15-00 66 23 14 80 W 31 1 1862 W 41 66275 G 02/15-01 66 23 14 82 W 30 1 2137 W 40 75529 G 02/15-02 66 23 15 78 W 26 43 2 1 W24 2412 W 40 84783 G 02/15-03 66 23 14 82 W 21 1 2262 W 38 76050 G 02/15-04 66 23 14 86 W 14 1 2112 W 37 67317 G 02/15-05 50 9 14 91 W 9 9 2 1 NW67 1962 W 35 58584 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...TIM EGAN REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090212.SUGAR.01/BOU