FNUS72 KJAX 121036
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BURN SCHOOL...DOF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
536 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2120 EST ON FEBRUARY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR DUVAL COUNTY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
PM EST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RH VALUES...

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...THEN EXIT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS ESTABLISHING.

FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 35 PERCENT...WITH
LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF THE
PRESCRIBED BURN SITE...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING FOR DUVAL
COUNTY.

FRIDAY...EASTERLY WINDS ESTABLISHING DURING THE DAY WILL PROVIDE SOME
HUMIDIFICATION...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-4500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....61.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........79     75     60     60     44     39
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............62     62     69     74     76     75
RH..............95     81     63     49     41     37
20 FT WIND......W 6    W 7    W 7    NW 8   NW 7   NW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....500    1100   2400   2400   4500   3800
TRANSPORT WIND..W 14   W 13   W 13   W 13   W 12   NW 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........39     39     33     33     26     28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............69     62     59     56     54     53
RH..............47     61     66     69     71     72
20 FT WIND......N 5    N 3    N 3    N 2    N 1    N 2
20 FT WIND GUST.       5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....3800   500    400    400    200    300
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 10  N 9    N 6    N 6    NE 3   NE 6
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-4300 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....36.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...ZAPPE
REQUESTED BY...BARRY COULLIETTE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090212.BURNS.01/JAX