FNUS72 KJAX 121016
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CEDAR POINT...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
516 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON FEBRUARY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NASSAU COUNTY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RH VALUES...

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...THEN EXIT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS ESTABLISHING.

FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 35 PERCENT...WITH LONG
DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES LIKELY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
PRESCRIBED BURN SITE...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING FOR NASSAU
COUNTY.

FRIDAY...EASTERLY WINDS ESTABLISHING DURING THE DAY WILL PROVIDE SOME
HUMIDIFICATION...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES.

WIND SPEEDS WILL SUSTAIN BELOW 15 MPH TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING NORTH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-4000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....58.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........55     36     36     31
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............70     73     74     71
RH..............57     48     42     45
20 FT WIND......NW 8   NW 8   N 7    N 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2200   4000   4000   3300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 14   W 13   W 13   NW 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........31     31     26     26     21     24
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............68     62     59     57     55     54
RH..............51     63     67     68     69     68
20 FT WIND......N 3    NE 2   N 3    N 2    N 2    N 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....3300   500    400    400    300    400
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 10  N 8    N 6    N 6    N 5    NE 7
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 13 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-3400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....32.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...ZAPPE
REQUESTED BY...DAVE LOVELAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090212.CEDAR.01/JAX