FNUS71 KBUF 161756
FWSBUF

SPOT FORECAST FOR CONTINENTAL 3407...NWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1256 PM EST MON FEB 16 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1249 EST ON FEBRUARY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TODAY
TO THE LOWER 30S BY TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 ON
WEDNESDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT CHANGE TO RAIN AFTER ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
AT VARYING RATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 17.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
                    VARIABLE...THEN...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MIN 3 (POOR).

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........22  18  19  20  21  26  35  40  45  55  60  58
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............28  26  24  22  21  20  20  20  20  20  19  19
RH..............58  64  70  74  78  79  81  82  82  83  83  85
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  W   W   W   W   SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..7   6   5   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10          5   5   5   5   5               10
SMK DISPERSION..28  19  15  11  9   6   4   3   3   4   6   6

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MAX 38 (FAIR).

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........54  56  64  69  69  74  80  81  84  86  86  87
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............18  17  17  21  25  29  32  34  35  35  35  34
RH..............88  91  94  83  71  61  53  49  47  46  48  50
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   8   6
20 FT WIND GUST.    10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  10  10
SMK DISPERSION..6   8   14  24  34  38  38  36  35  33  31  27

$$

FORECASTER...SFM
REQUESTED BY...J  LEVAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT
.TAG 20090216.CONTI.06/BUF