FNUS72 KMHX 171157 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH CENTRAL BELL ISLAND...US FWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 657 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EST ON FEBRUARY 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH GUSTING TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING THEN DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM AFTER 5 PM. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 30% THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SMOKE DISPERSION WILL BECOME STAGNANT WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR FOG TO FORM IN THE EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS CALM WHICH WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL RAPIDLY TO THE DEWPOINT WHICH MAY PRODUCE PATCHES OF FOG. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH TENDS TO DECREASE THE FOG BECAUSE IT LEADS TO A WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG JUST SOME FOG PATCHES MAINLY FROM 10 PM TO AROUND 2 AM. AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY THURSDAY MORNING OF A 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47. MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 16 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........18 16 18 21 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............42 45 46 46 RH..............48 38 31 33 20 FT WIND......N 10 N 8 N 5 N 4 20 FT WIND GUST.15 12 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......CALM. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSION....STAGNENT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 2 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........23 26 31 36 41 55 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............43 36 32 34 36 37 RH..............39 72 97 95 85 75 20 FT WIND......N 2 NE 1 SE 0 S 0 S 1 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........69 74 82 90 92 93 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP............37 39 45 50 54 54 RH..............82 85 76 68 66 71 20 FT WIND......S 4 S 6 S 8 S 10 S 11 S 12 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 20 25 25 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...GREG SUSZEK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090217.NORTH.01/MHX