FNUS72 KJAX 181946
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHURCH LAKE...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
246 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1500 EST ON FEBRUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW STORMS TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING WINDY AND MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL SHARPLY BEHIND
THE FRONT ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS HAS PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....75.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........27  45  45
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............75  75  74
RH..............39  39  43
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..16  15  14
20 FT WIND GUST.25  25  25
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.1 2.6 2.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.26  24  24
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-700 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....15.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........45     60     65     65     77     88
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............72     67     65     63     62     61
RH..............50     61     69     76     83     87
20 FT WIND......SW 12  SW 12  SW 10  SW 9   SW 10  SW 12
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....2600   1400   900    900    500    700
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 24  SW 17  SW 15  SW 15  SW 16  SW 18
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      10     20     20     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1000...THEN 2 UNTIL 1300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-3500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 30 TO
                    35 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 20
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....95.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...HESS
REQUESTED BY...TAMMY MILTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090218.CHURC.01/JAX