FNUS72 KJAX 182232
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHURCH LAKE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
532 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1711 EST ON FEBRUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO LOW RH VALUES...

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL WINDY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
BREEZY AND DRIER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR FRIDAY.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....72.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      5 PM
SKY (%).........45
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE
TEMP............74
RH..............50
20 FT WIND......SW 14
20 FT WIND GUST.25
MIX HGT (FT)....2600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 24
CHC OF PCPN (%).0
LAL.............1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-700 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....14.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........45     60     65     65     77     88
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............72     67     65     63     62     61
RH..............50     61     69     76     83     87
20 FT WIND......SW 12  SW 12  SW 10  SW 9   SW 10  SW 12
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....2600   1400   900    900    500    700
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 24  SW 17  SW 15  SW 15  SW 16  SW 18
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      10     20     20     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0700...THEN 3 UNTIL 1000...THEN 2 UNTIL
                    1300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 18 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 32 TO
                    39 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 17
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....103.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...ZAPPE
REQUESTED BY...MIKE WILLIAMS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090218.CHURC.02/JAX