FNUS72 KTAE 181926
FWSTAE

SPOT FORECAST FOR 805...EGLIN AFB JACKSON GUARD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
226 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EST ON FEBRUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT (850) 942-8835.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT AND 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 15 MPH...

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. NOTE...DUE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AND WEB PAGE ISSUES...THE RED FLAG WARNING PRODUCT...
MIARFWTAE...WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 68.
RH..................81 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH AT IGNITION.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....54.

TIME (EST)      2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT
SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............68     68     67     66     65     63
RH..............81     82     83     92     92     93
20 FT WIND......S 14   S 15   S 14   S 13   SW 13  SW 13
20 FT WIND GUST.25     25     25     15     15     15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 53.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1900...THEN 4 UNTIL 0400...THEN 2 AFTER
                    0400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 700
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....20.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS ENDING EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64.
RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO
                    20 MPH.
CWR.................70 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0700...THEN 1 AFTER 0700.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400-3600 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....65.

$$
FORECASTER...JAMSKI
REQUESTED BY...BRETT WILLIAMS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090218.805__.01/TAE