FNUS73 KEAX 201404 CCA FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR MINE CREEK OUTHOLDINGS...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 804 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON FEBRUARY 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH BURNING TODAY... WHILE PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...SOME VARIABILITY OF SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. 20 FT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE MORNING AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY BY 3 PM WITH PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 MPH AT THAT TIME. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER IGNITION TIME WITH MAXIMUM DEPTHS AROUND 5500 FT AGL BY 3PM. WHILE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY AT OR AROUND 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AS TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER 4 PM AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH CURRENT TIMING OF THIS FRONT INTO THE MARAIS DES CYGNES AREA BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM. COLD AIR WILL SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...ANY FIRES BEING DEALT WITH OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....39 AT IGNITION...MAX 61. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 6. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 21 TO 29 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........24 30 35 35 37 37 38 39 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............39 44 49 52 55 59 57 55 RH..............51 45 40 36 33 30 32 35 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 12 13 14 15 16 16 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 20 20 25 25 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 24. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 67 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 20 TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO NORTH AROUND 38 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........39 46 52 58 64 70 73 72 71 69 67 66 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............54 51 49 46 43 41 38 36 34 32 31 30 RH..............38 40 42 45 47 50 53 60 63 66 67 67 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW W NW NW NW N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..16 14 12 12 15 21 25 26 26 24 22 20 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 15 15 20 30 35 35 35 35 30 30 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 2 4 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 36. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 40 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 20 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-4400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 22 TO 28 MPH. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........65 62 54 46 40 33 29 28 23 20 17 14 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............28 26 24 27 29 31 33 34 35 36 36 35 RH..............68 72 76 67 59 54 49 45 43 41 40 41 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..17 17 17 18 18 20 20 20 18 17 16 13 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 25 20 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...DUX REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090220.MINEC.01/EAX