FNUS73 KPAH 201601 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR PECK RANCH DEMO BURN...MDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1001 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 CST ON FEBRUARY 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... GOOD BURNING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...TONIGHT THINGS GET INTERESTING. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT A LOW INVERSION WILL SET UP...EFFECTIVELY TRAPPING ANY SMOKE WITHIN 1500 FT AGL. IN ADDITION...RAIN WILL DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 54. RH..................28 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 8 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...AND REMAINING AROUND 3000 FT AGL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE TEMP............52 53 RH..............28 25 20 FT WIND......SW 8 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....3000 2900 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 18 SW 24 CWR.............0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33. RH..................MAX 70 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400 FT AGL AFTER 3 AM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 26 TO 31 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN TEMP............47 47 46 44 40 36 RH..............40 42 45 49 57 67 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 8 S 8 SW 8 SW 7 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1200 1200 1500 2200 3000 TRANSPORT WIND..S 29 S 30 SW 31 SW 30 SW 29 W 28 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 39. RH..................MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-5100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 26 TO 30 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SNOW SNOW NONE NONE TEMP............35 35 36 35 RH..............66 64 56 52 20 FT WIND......W 8G15 NW 10G25 NW 10G30 NW 10G20 MIX HGT (FT)....3700 4000 4100 4700 TRANSPORT WIND..W 26 NW 28 NW 29 NW 30 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...GARY GOGNAT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090220.PECKR.01/PAH