FNUS72 KILM 211316 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR MCMILLAN...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 816 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON FEBRUARY 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING TO WELL OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........46 AT IGNITION...MAX 55. RH..................31 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4200-4400 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........1 3 5 4 5 5 10 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............46 49 52 54 54 53 53 RH..............31 29 27 27 30 34 39 20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 1.5 1.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 10 10 10 12 12 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 44. RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST 12 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........20 37 71 79 77 64 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............52 50 48 47 46 45 RH..............44 54 64 70 76 81 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 S 5 S 5 SW 5 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 900 600 600 600 600 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 12 SE 16 S 0 S 0 S 17 SW 17 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 58. RH..................MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3900-5700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 17 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 29 TO 36 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........72 72 71 43 9 7 WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............45 46 52 55 57 55 RH..............83 78 56 42 34 33 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 8 W 10 W 10 W 13 W 11 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 20 20 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....600 1100 3300 3300 5700 3900 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 SW 20 SW 29 SW 29 W 36 W 33 $$ FORECASTER...BACON REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090221.MCMIL.01/ILM