FNUS72 KMHX 251552 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PERRY BURN...NC FOREST RESOURCES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1052 AM EST WED FEB 25 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EST ON FEBRUARY 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WE GET A RETURN FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER RH VALUES COULD STILL DROP INTO THE 25-30% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG IT SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. USING A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE MIDDLE 50S YIELDED A MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 4100 FT OFF OF THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING. THIS MIXING HEIGHT COUPLED WITH A TRANSPORT WIND AROUND 5 MPH PRODUCED A VENTILATION RATE OF 20500. THIS MIXING HEIGHT WAS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF OF A RANGE I CALCULATED USING LOWER HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHT/TRANSPORT WIND COMBINATIONS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSION....VERY POOR. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........48 53 55 54 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............45 51 53 51 RH..............35 26 24 30 20 FT WIND......SE 2 S 3 SE 4 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32. MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........52 48 32 30 30 27 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............48 44 40 39 38 36 RH..............34 46 58 64 70 77 20 FT WIND......SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 SE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...PETE STEPONKUS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090225.PERRY.01/MHX