FNUS72 KMLB 011014
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHILOH 3...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
514 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON MARCH 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PRESCRIBED
BURN AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. A ROUGH TIME-LINE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIATION WILL RANGE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVIER CELLS COULD APPROACH 45 MPH.
MOVEMENT OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR THE SURFACE COULD
APPROACH 35 MPH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND CRITICALLY LOW RH
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

**FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS.
WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS.**

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL
                    CLOUDINESS...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID
                    TO LATE MORNING WITH EVENTUAL DECREASING CLOUDINESS
                    BY MID TO LATE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THIS
                    AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH BECOMING WEST THIS
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0700...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700 FT AGL LATE MORNING
                    INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 18 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 31
                    TO 36 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....74.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............64  63  61  60  59  58  57  55  53  52  51  50
RH..............81  78  78  75  72  69  67  69  71  71  71  68
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..12  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  12  11  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.
MAX HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100 FT AGL IN THE LATE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 26 TO 35 MPH DECREASING TO 23 TO 24 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....25.
LVORI...............3.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400 FT AGL IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....52.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT VERNACHIO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090301.SHILO.01/MLB