FNUS72 KMHX 061139 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR HYDE PARK UNITS 1-3...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 639 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON MARCH 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY THEN LINGER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THEN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE TODAY FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNSTABLE TO 5000-6000 FEET WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KT AROUND 5000 FEET. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS HIGH BECAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS STILL STRONG (OVER 1030 MB) WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PRODUCING A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S TODAY PRODUCING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ALLOWING FOR DEEP MIXING DURING PEAK HEATING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........37 42 41 33 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 62 67 65 RH..............62 50 42 48 20 FT WIND......SW 9 SW 15 SW 18 SW 14 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 28 27 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASING 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 8 PM. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSION....FAIR. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM TEMP............63 59 56 54 53 52 RH..............56 69 83 86 89 93 20 FT WIND......SW 12 S 8 S 6 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.21 16 10 10 10 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........23 23 23 23 22 19 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............51 55 65 70 73 71 RH..............96 86 65 55 48 53 20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 W 10 W 10 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 20 20 17 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...CARVER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090306.HYDEP.01/MHX