FNUS72 KMHX 061225 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PELETIER...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 725 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON MARCH 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY THEN LINGER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THEN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE TODAY FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNSTABLE TO 5500 FEET WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-30 KT AROUND 5000 FEET. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS HIGH BECAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS STILL STRONG (OVER 1030 MB) WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PRODUCING A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S TODAY PRODUCING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ALLOWING FOR DEEP MIXING DURING PEAK HEATING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........34 39 39 32 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............54 61 65 64 RH..............71 59 53 59 20 FT WIND......SW 9 SW 15 SW 17 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 23 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH...DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSION....GOOD. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........24 23 23 23 23 23 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............61 57 54 52 51 50 RH..............67 77 88 89 93 98 20 FT WIND......SW 10 SW 10 SW 8 SW 7 SW 6 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........23 23 23 23 22 19 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............49 53 63 68 71 69 RH..............100 91 69 60 56 62 20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 6 SW 9 SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 19 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...JAMES CHERRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090306.PELET.01/MHX