FNUS73 KPAH 121501 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR QUARRY...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1001 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MARCH 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THIS PRESCRIBED BURN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE FIRE ITSELF. PRE-FIRE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STRONGLY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PLUME MUCH HIGHER THAT 2500 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OUTSIDE THE FIRE WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP BACK TO AMBIENT /PRE-FIRE LEVELS/...GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHERE THE FIRE IS IMMEDIATELY OCCURRING...THE PLUME MAY RISE LOCALLY UP TO 5000-6000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...BUT DROP BACK DOWN TO BELOW 2500 FEET AGL WHERE MIXING IS MINIMAL A SHORT DISTANCE FROM THE FIRE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MARGINALIZED...BUT TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME LATERALLY TO THE WEST FROM THE RIDGE...MOST LIKELY IN AN NARROW...ELONGATED FASHION. THE TABULAR AND TEXT INFORMATION BELOW REPRESENTS THE PRE-FIRE ENVIRONMENT AND MAY NOT BE TOTALLY REPRESENTATIVE WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET OF THE ACTUAL FIRE ITSELF. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND VERY LIGHT SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........34 AT IGNITION...MAX 37. RH..................40 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 11 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1800-2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 20 MPH. TIME (CDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW TEMP............34 36 37 34 RH..............40 39 38 42 20 FT WIND......NE 6 NE 5 NE 5 E 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2600 2900 2800 2600 TRANSPORT WIND..E 16 E 16 E 17 E 18 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 25. RH..................MAX 71 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............33 31 29 28 28 27 RH..............49 53 60 63 66 68 20 FT WIND......E 4 NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 NE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 2200 1800 1500 1200 1100 TRANSPORT WIND..E 18 E 18 E 18 E 18 E 18 NE 18 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 47. RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-3600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 21 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............26 31 37 43 45 46 RH..............71 63 52 45 43 42 20 FT WIND......NE 5 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6 NE 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1900 2700 3400 3600 3500 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 18 NE 17 E 16 E 16 E 17 E 20 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 3 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...BOBBY BLOODWORTH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090312.QUARR.01/PAH