FNUS75 KBOU 121825 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK SURVEY...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1225 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING NORTHERN COLORADO ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS CIRCULATION. A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOWFALL TONIGHT. THROUGH FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE MAIN WEATHER DISTURBANCE HEADS INTO WESTERN TEXAS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WHILE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE OUT OF THE NORTH. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....12-18. MAX HUMIDITY........85-95%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 800-1800 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 1300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY BEFORE 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-38. MIN HUMIDITY........45-55%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....16-22. MAX HUMIDITY........65-75%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN WEST 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST UP TO 4 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 600-1200 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-43. MIN HUMIDITY........34-42%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-13 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ELK SURVEY. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/12-12 29 0 30 47 SW 5 5 2 1 W49 5355 W 22 101831 V 03/12-13 29 0 32 45 SW 5 1 5688 W 22 105528 V 03/12-14 29 0 33 43 SW 3 1 6020 W 21 109225 V 03/12-15 28 0 34 41 SW 3 3 2 1 W47 6352 W 21 112922 V 03/12-16 28 0 34 41 W 3 1 6053 W 20 101131 V 03/12-17 28 0 32 43 W 2 1 5753 W 17 89340 G 03/12-18 87 30 30 46 NW 2 2 2 1 W43 5453 W 16 77549 G 03/12-19 87 30 29 50 NW 2 1 4795 W 15 65243 G 03/12-20 87 30 26 56 W 2 1 4137 W 15 52937 F 03/12-21 88 30 23 64 W 2 2 2 1 W40 3479 W 14 40631 F 03/12-22 88 30 22 72 W 2 1 2659 W 10 28763 P 03/12-23 88 30 20 79 W 2 1 1840 W 8 16895 P 03/13-00 90 30 19 85 W 2 2 2 1 W35 1020 W 6 5028 P 03/13-01 90 30 18 89 W 3 1 904 W 6 4583 P 03/13-02 90 30 17 90 W 3 1 787 W 6 4138 P 03/13-03 92 30 17 91 W 5 5 3 1 W23 671 W 7 3693 P 03/13-04 92 30 16 91 W 5 1 727 W 6 3806 P 03/13-05 92 30 17 89 W 5 1 783 NW 6 3919 P 03/13-06 79 32 17 87 W 5 5 2 1 NW18 839 NW 6 4031 P 03/13-07 79 32 17 88 NW 3 1 1587 NW 5 5942 P 03/13-08 79 32 19 85 N 2 1 2334 N 5 7852 P 03/13-09 79 32 21 78 N 2 2 2 1 NW12 3082 N 3 9762 P 03/13-10 79 32 24 71 NE 3 1 3881 N 5 16100 P 03/13-11 79 32 27 64 E 6 1 4680 NE 6 22438 P 03/13-12 66 30 29 59 E 7 7 3 1 NE 9 5480 NE 6 28775 P 03/13-13 66 30 31 54 E 7 1 5677 NE 6 26633 P 03/13-14 66 30 32 51 E 7 1 5874 E 5 24490 P 03/13-15 66 30 33 50 E 7 7 3 1 E 9 6071 E 5 22348 P 03/13-16 66 30 33 49 E 6 1 5841 E 3 19492 P 03/13-17 66 30 32 50 E 6 1 5610 E 3 16637 P 03/13-18 54 10 30 53 E 5 5 3 1 E12 5380 NE 3 13781 P 03/13-19 54 10 28 51 SE 3 1 4722 NE 2 10758 P 03/13-20 54 10 26 54 SW 2 1 4065 E 2 7734 P 03/13-21 54 10 24 58 SW 2 2 2 1 E18 3407 CALM 4711 P 03/13-22 54 10 22 61 W 2 1 2670 CALM 3784 P 03/13-23 54 10 21 62 W 3 1 1933 W 2 2857 P 03/14-00 46 0 20 63 W 5 5 2 1 E23 1196 W 2 1930 P 03/14-01 46 0 19 63 W 5 1 970 W 3 2116 P 03/14-02 46 0 19 64 W 6 1 744 W 5 2302 P 03/14-03 46 0 18 65 W 6 6 2 1 E21 518 W 6 2488 P 03/14-04 46 0 18 66 W 7 1 513 W 6 2762 P 03/14-05 46 0 18 66 W 8 1 509 W 7 3035 P 03/14-06 36 0 18 67 W 8 8 2 1 E18 504 W 8 3309 P 03/14-07 36 0 19 68 W 8 1 931 W 7 4645 P 03/14-08 36 0 21 65 W 7 1 1358 W 6 5981 P 03/14-09 36 0 24 60 W 6 6 4 1 E17 1786 W 5 7317 P 03/14-10 36 0 27 54 W 6 1 2968 W 3 7087 P 03/14-11 36 0 30 49 W 5 1 4150 W 2 6857 P 03/14-12 36 1 33 45 SW 5 5 4 1 E14 5332 CALM 6626 P 03/14-13 36 1 35 41 SW 5 1 5432 SW 2 9345 P 03/14-14 36 1 37 39 SW 5 1 5532 SW 2 12064 P 03/14-15 36 1 37 37 SW 5 5 4 1 E 9 5631 SW 3 14784 P 03/14-16 36 1 37 37 SW 6 1 5538 SW 3 17935 P 03/14-17 36 1 36 38 W 7 1 5444 SW 5 21086 P 03/14-18 36 10 34 40 W 8 8 3 1 E 7 5351 SW 6 24238 P 03/14-19 36 10 32 41 W 8 1 4728 SW 7 25616 P 03/14-20 36 10 30 44 W 8 1 4104 SW 8 26994 P 03/14-21 36 10 27 48 W 8 8 4 1 E 6 3481 SW 9 28372 P 03/14-22 36 10 25 50 W 8 1 2865 SW 10 25460 P 03/14-23 36 10 24 51 W 8 1 2249 SW 13 22547 P 03/15-00 36 10 23 52 W 8 8 4 1 SE10 1633 SW 14 19634 P 03/15-01 36 10 22 54 W 9 1 1490 W 16 19981 P 03/15-02 36 10 21 54 W 10 1 1347 W 17 20328 P 03/15-03 36 10 20 56 W 10 10 4 1 S13 1203 W 20 20675 P 03/15-04 36 10 20 56 W 12 1 1261 W 21 23248 P 03/15-05 36 10 20 57 W 13 1 1319 W 22 25821 P 03/15-06 51 22 20 57 W 14 22 3 1 S14 1377 W 24 28394 P 03/15-07 51 22 20 58 W 13 1 03/15-08 51 22 21 57 W 13 1 03/15-09 51 22 23 54 W 14 22 1 03/15-10 51 22 25 51 W 14 1 03/15-11 51 22 27 49 W 14 1 03/15-12 51 22 29 47 W 15 24 1 03/15-13 51 22 30 45 W 14 1 03/15-14 51 22 31 44 W 14 1 03/15-15 51 22 31 43 W 14 22 1 03/15-16 51 22 31 43 W 13 1 03/15-17 51 22 30 44 W 13 1 03/15-18 49 17 29 46 W 13 13 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...KRIS HOLIEN REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090313.ELKSU.01/BOU