FNUS75 KCYS 151704
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST PASTURE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1104 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON MARCH 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
FOR SUNDAY LOCATIONS ARE GUSTY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 25 PERCENT...WHICH COULD REACH NEAR MINIMUM VALUES OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FOR THE FORECAST TOMORROW
AT THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST TO SLIGHT
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW OVER THE BURN AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
10 AM MDT AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EXPECTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
AT THIS TIME...DO NOT NECESSARILY THINK RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
BE MET WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE AS THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY WELL.

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OVERNIGHT
OR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TO SEE IF THERE ARE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR YOUR BURN AREA.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 13 TO 19 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (4300-167400 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...GOERING
REQUESTED BY...CLAY WESTBROOK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090315.EASTP.01/CYS