FNUS73 KPAH 181409 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR I-207-P...USFWS CRAB ORCHARD NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 909 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND LATER TODAY AND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CRAB ORCHARD AREA BEGINNING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........59 AT IGNITION...MAX 75. RH..................66 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC MC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TEMP............59 63 67 69 71 72 73 73 71 RH..............66 58 50 46 44 40 41 43 46 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.4 4.0 5.1 6.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S TRANSP WIND SPD.0 5 10 15 16 16 14 10 5 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45. RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................75 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-6500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600-3300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 28 TO 36 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 26 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............68 60 56 53 49 46 RH..............51 71 80 82 90 91 20 FT WIND......S 3 E 5 NE 6 N 6 N 6 N 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....6500 4600 2500 1600 2100 2300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 E 28 E 26 CWR.............70 70 70 80 80 80 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 2 2 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 59. RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200-6600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO EAST AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 23 TO 31 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............46 51 55 58 RH..............86 68 52 43 20 FT WIND......N 8G20 N 8G20 N 7G10 N 7G10 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 2400 3300 6600 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 NE 30 NE 24 NE 24 CWR.............10 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 4 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...BLANCHARD REQUESTED BY...RAYMOND J PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090318.I207P.01/PAH