FNUS73 KPAH 181252 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR ONE HORSE GAP...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 752 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ALTHOUGH THE IGNITION TIME IS SCHEDULED FOR 1030 AM CDT...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL NOT RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE THE 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUM UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 11 AM CDT. A THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND STALL OUT OVER THE PRESCRIBED BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR TODAY...THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE AND TWENTY FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH ALL DAY...WITH WINDS RUNNING ALONG AND SLIGHTLY UPSLOPE ALONG THE RIDGE SLOPE IN THE PRECRIBED BURN AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 75. RH..................65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1000-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 17 TO 26 MPH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............61 64 67 70 71 73 73 73 71 RH..............65 57 48 44 42 40 41 41 44 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.26 26 23 20 18 17 17 20 22 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................60 PERCENT INCREASING TO 77 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-2500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 22 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 0 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO EAST AROUND 28 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 38 TO 40 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........PC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............68 64 61 59 57 56 55 52 50 49 48 48 RH..............48 58 64 72 77 80 81 86 84 85 85 86 20 FT WIND DIR..SW W N NE N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 15 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S S S S S SE E NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.22 15 7 0 0 0 0 13 28 39 40 38 CWR.............60 60 60 60 60 60 80 80 80 80 80 80 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 59. RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 6 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500-6800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 33 MPH DECREASING TO 23 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY MC MC MC PC PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............48 49 51 52 54 55 56 56 57 57 57 55 RH..............84 77 72 65 59 54 51 47 43 43 42 44 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 15 10 10 15 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.3 4.5 5.7 6.6 6.8 6.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N NE TRANSP WIND SPD.33 31 30 28 26 25 24 24 24 23 24 24 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...FRANK PAUKERT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090318.ONEHO.01/PAH