FNUS73 KPAH 181045 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNKLANDS WEST UNIT...MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 545 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY MIX OUT ANY REMAINING FOG THAT MAY LINGER IN THE LEWIS HOLLOW AREA PRIOR TO THE PRESCRIBED BURN TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE FIRST HOUR OF THE SCHEDULED IGNITION TIME...AS THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE THE CRITICAL 1700 FOOT AGL THRESHOLD UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 11 AM CDT...BUT SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TIME PERIOD TO BURN THE HARDWOOD LITTER WILL BECOME LIMITED ON OR SHORTLY AFTER 3 PM...AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AROUND 8 PM CDT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO SEE A MARKED INCREASE AT THIS TIME AS COOLER AND RELATIVE MOIST ARE SPREADS OVER THE AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT)...THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. RH..................67 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING ...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT...RISING TO 60 PERCENT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAXING OUT NEAR 7200 FT...THEN DECREASING TO 3100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC MC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TEMP............60 64 68 70 72 74 75 74 72 RH..............67 58 50 46 41 39 40 40 43 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.7 2.3 3.1 4.4 5.9 7.2 5.6 3.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.10 13 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 6 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................62 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 20 TO 29 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 29 TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............68 60 55 52 47 44 RH..............50 71 83 86 92 95 20 FT WIND......S 2 NE 5 NE 7 N 6 N 6 N 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 20 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 2100 2600 3000 3000 3000 TRANSPORT WIND..W 7 N 20 NE 28 NE 29 NE 30 NE 30 CWR.............60 60 60 60 60 60 HAINES INDEX....4 3 2 2 2 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 6 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-5800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 20 TO 28 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............43 50 57 60 RH..............91 69 48 40 20 FT WIND......N 9G20 NE 8G20 NE 7G10 NE 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....3100 2700 4000 5600 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 28 NE 25 NE 22 NE 21 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 5 6 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL BILL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090318.SUNKL.02/PAH