FNUS73 KPAH 181102 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR WOLF HOLLOW...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 602 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ANY FOG SHOULD HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA FOR AT LEAST ONE TO TWO HOURS PRIOR TO THE IGNITION TIME OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN. HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUM UNTIL BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM. THIS MAY INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE RISE ABOVE THE RIDGE WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY MEASURABLE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION OR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. HOWEVER... ANY FIRE OPERATIONS EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE STRONGLY IMPACTED BY AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHARPLY INCREASE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE MARK TWAIN FOREST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT NEAR THE PRESCRIBED BURN LOCATION BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........63 AT IGNITION...MAX 75. RH..................63 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............63 66 69 71 73 73 73 71 RH..............63 56 49 46 43 44 45 47 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 1.9 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW W W W W W SW TRANSP WIND SPD.3 8 12 13 13 13 15 17 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47. RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 67 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-2500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 0 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO EAST AROUND 22 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 32 TO 39 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............68 61 57 55 51 48 RH..............52 69 79 84 91 91 20 FT WIND......S 5 SE 3 E 4 N 6 N 7 N 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 15 20 MIX HGT (FT)....4200 1800 1100 2300 2500 2300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 S 6 S 0 S 0 E 22 NE 38 CWR.............0 0 0 70 70 70 HAINES INDEX....5 4 3 2 2 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-5100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 31 TO 39 MPH DECREASING TO 25 TO 29 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP............48 53 58 60 RH..............86 66 52 43 20 FT WIND......N 9G20 N 9G20 NE 8G20 NE 8G20 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 2600 2700 4900 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 39 NE 31 NE 26 NE 25 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 5 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE ROGERS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090318.WOLFH.01/PAH