FNUS73 KSGF 181727 FWSSGF SPOT FORECAST FOR MINNINGHAW PREP...USFS MARK TWAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1227 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A VICHY TO OSCEOLA TO NEVADA LINE... AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO DUE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH FURTHER SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 3 PM. SO FAR SHOWERS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER WE DO EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM FOR THIS SITE. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....69 AT IGNITION...MAX 74. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY 2 PM...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 3 PM. CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...MAXIMUM 3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............69 69 71 73 72 RH..............47 46 44 43 45 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 4 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 3.7 4.9 5.5 5.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W NW TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 8 8 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 43. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 78 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........GRADUAL VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIP....50 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A. TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............70 67 62 59 56 55 53 52 50 49 48 47 RH..............50 54 62 67 68 71 72 74 78 78 78 78 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.9 4.1 3.2 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 12 14 16 18 21 22 23 24 25 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 60 60 60 60 60 60 50 50 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 58. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 40 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. WIND SHIFT..........NONE. CHANCE OF PRECIP....10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 17 TO 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC MCR MCR WEATHER COV.....CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW TEMP............47 46 45 47 50 52 54 55 56 57 58 57 RH..............79 79 80 72 65 58 52 48 45 42 40 41 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.25 25 24 23 22 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...TERRY REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE ROGERS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090318.MINNI.01/SGF