FNUS73 KPAH 201002 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR DAN SMITH...MDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 502 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... VERY LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WELL UNDER 10 MPH. WHAT WIND THERE IS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNSLOPE. A GRADUAL RECOVERY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SOME SHOWERS WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO THE LONGEVITY OF THE BURN. HOWEVER...IF THE SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE REGION...THEN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ON SATURDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 60. RH..................40 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 21 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE INCREASING TO AROUND 5100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 15 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............49 52 54 56 58 59 58 56 RH..............40 36 32 29 26 24 26 30 20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.8 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600-2700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 21 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............54 49 46 44 42 40 RH..............39 43 45 50 67 83 20 FT WIND......SE 3 SE 2 SE 2 SE 3 SE 3 SE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....4700 3800 2700 1800 1600 1600 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 SE 15 SE 18 S 21 SE 20 SE 16 CWR.............0 0 0 20 40 60 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 52. RH..................MIN 64 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................52 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 16 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............40 45 49 51 RH..............90 77 67 68 20 FT WIND......E 3G5 SE 6G10 S 6G10 S 5G10 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 1900 2000 2100 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 14 S 15 S 16 S 16 CWR.............50 50 40 40 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...GARY GOGNAT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090320.DANSM.01/PAH