FNUS73 KPAH 201256 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR I-206-P...USFWS CRAB ORCHARD NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 756 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... VERY LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN A SHELTERED ENVIRONMENT. WHAT LITTLE WIND THERE IS WILL RUN UPSLOPE. SOME RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHTS MAY DROP BELOW 1000 FT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SMOKE MANAGEMENT ISSUES. SATURDAY WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS MORE CLOUD COVER. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........43 AT IGNITION...MAX 57. RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE INCREASING TO NEAR 4900 FT AGL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 16 MPH. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............43 46 49 52 54 55 56 55 54 RH..............53 46 40 35 32 29 27 29 32 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 4.0 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37. RH..................MAX 58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-1900 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............52 47 44 43 41 39 RH..............34 38 39 42 45 51 20 FT WIND......E 2 E 2 E 2 SE 2 SE 2 SE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....3900 2900 1900 1000 700 800 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 9 SE 10 SE 13 SE 14 SE 13 SE 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 59. RH..................MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND REMAINING NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............39 47 54 58 RH..............58 50 37 34 20 FT WIND......E 2 SE 5 SE 4G5 S 4G5 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 2300 3400 4100 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...RAYMOND J PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090320.I206P.01/PAH