FNUS75 KCYS 230021
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH FORK...NSFS CDR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
621 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1743 MDT ON MARCH 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM MDT
TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG EARLY SPRING STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BRING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO THE FIRE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AT THE FIRE
SITE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL NEAR 100 PERCENT.
VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FIRE AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. A HEAVY WET SNOWFALL OF 10 TO 14 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE FIRE WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED NEAR THE FIRE
AND WILL BECOME A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO THOSE ON SITE OR ATTEMPTING
TRAVEL TO OR FROM THE FIRE SITE. THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...SNOW...
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY MAKE TRAVEL ON SECONDARY ROADS VERY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THOSE PLANNING TO
BE AT THE FIRE SITE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING. RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 3 MPH AND GUSTING TO 7 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH AROUND 8 PM MDT...
                    THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 11 MPH AND
                    GUSTY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO
                    600 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 16 BY MIDNIGHT MDT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING POOR BY
                    MIDNIGHT MDT (6600-143000 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE MORNING. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
                    THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38...DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 30
                    TO 34 BY 5 PM MDT.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 20 TO
                    25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (28300-82100 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...CARPENTER
REQUESTED BY...MELODY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090322.SOUTH.01/CYS