FNUS73 KPAH 231259 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR TA 20...DOD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 759 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL PUSH SOME FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS... LOW HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST AS YESTERDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER INCREASING WINDS TODAY SHOULD NEGATE MUCH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT. IN ADDITION THERE IS A LAYER OF VERY LOW DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. THUS...BETWEEN 1300 AND 1700 A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE RH'S DIPPING WELL INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONTROL OF ANY FIRE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........63 AT IGNITION...MAX 74. RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 29 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 4500-6400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............63 66 70 71 72 73 72 71 RH..............50 44 38 36 35 33 33 35 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 4.5 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.25 22 20 18 18 18 22 24 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52. RH..................MAX 71 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 24 MPH DECREASING TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............69 63 60 58 56 54 RH..............41 48 49 53 58 63 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 5 SE 4 SE 4 SE 4 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....5700 1900 BLW100 200 100 BLW100 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 8 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73. RH..................MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-5400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 13 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 29 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 TO 43 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 31 TO 33 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............53 62 69 72 RH..............71 61 51 46 20 FT WIND......SE 6G10 S 10G25 S 12G30 S 12G30 MIX HGT (FT)....200 3700 5400 4600 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 41 S 35 S 31 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...HOOPER REQUESTED BY...DREW MICKOLAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090323.TA20_.01/PAH