FNUS73 KJKL 241005 AAA
FWSJKL

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR WALLOW...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
605 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY TO
THE FIRE AREA TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING
NEAR 10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FIRE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... AND THEN AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-41 PERCENT...LOWEST ON SOUTH FACING SLOPES.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1 TO 3 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AT 5 TO 9 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHEAST 2 TO 4 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AT
                    6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
POP.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...RISING TO 5600 FT
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING
                    SOUTH AROUND 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....88.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........20     26     30     37     45
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............55     64     69     70     68
RH..............65     47     38     42     48
20 FT WIND......SE 3   S 7    S 8    S 9    S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     15     18     18

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS
                    DAWN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TOWARDS DAWN.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
POP.................50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........51     57     66     73     78     86
WEATHER COV.....                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............64     62     59     57     57     56
RH..............57     60     61     64     68     73
20 FT WIND......S 7    SE 6   SE 5   S 3    S 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10            5             10

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH.
POP.................80 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 26 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....84.

$$
FORECASTER...EDWARDS
REQUESTED BY...ROBIN ACCIARDO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090324.BEARW.01/JKL