FNUS74 KLZK 011336 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR MOCCASIN HOLLOW...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 836 AM CDT WED APR 1 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY. A STRONG INVERSION IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING...AND WILL NOT BREAK UNTIL MID MORNING. 500 HUNDRED METER MIXING HEIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE REACHED UNTIL AROUND 11 AM FOR THIS AREA. THE MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 4200 FEET...AND WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT AROUND NOON...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO THE STATE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...BUT EYE LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 67. RH..................40 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 31 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 4200 FT MSL. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............52 57 61 63 66 67 67 RH..............40 35 31 30 28 27 27 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.6 7 8 8 8 8 7 EYE LVL WND GST.8 8 8 8 8 8 8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.22 24 25 28 29 30 31 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 26 TO 32 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............67 61 56 53 51 49 RH..............29 37 48 57 65 72 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE S EYE LVL WND SPD.7 5 4 4 2 1 EYE LVL WND GST.8 5 5 3 3 3 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.32 31 30 28 26 26 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 20 20 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 28 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 25 TO 31 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 2900 FT MSL. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............47 49 56 60 RH..............79 77 64 52 EYE LVL WND DIR.SW W NW NW EYE LVL WND SPD.1 4 5 7 EYE LVL WND GST.0 3 5 8 MIX HGT (FT).... TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW TRANSP WIND SPD.28 21 13 20 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 100 100 100 $$ FORECASTER...58 REQUESTED BY...ANDY BAKER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090401.MOCCA.01/LZK