FNUS73 KPAH 312305 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR RCCA WOODLAND...MDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 605 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... I WENT ABOUT 10 PERCENT BELOW THE DRIEST MODEL RH FOR THIS FORECAST. CURRENT DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ARE WAY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. IF THE MID 20 DEW POINTS STAY IN HERE COULD SEE RH DROP TO NEAR 20 WED. IF THE SOUTEHRLY FLOW GETS BACK INTO THE REGION THEN IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 30%. BE SURE TO REQUEST ANOTHER SPOT WED MORNING TO SEE IF THE DRY AIR TRULY GETS IN HERE. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........54 AT IGNITION...MAX 67. RH..................34 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 6. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-7200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 28 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............54 58 61 63 65 66 65 64 RH..............34 30 27 26 25 24 26 27 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 5.3 6.8 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.3 5.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW SW S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.15 13 12 12 14 16 20 24 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500-3100 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 28 TO 37 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 26 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............62 55 52 49 46 45 RH..............30 47 55 63 71 76 20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....5200 4200 3100 2000 1500 1500 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 28 SE 33 SE 36 S 37 S 37 SE 31 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 5 3 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 60. RH..................MIN 61 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................74 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............44 51 57 59 RH..............79 68 62 61 20 FT WIND......SE 5G10 E 6G10 NE 6G15 NE 9G15 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 1600 1600 1600 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 22 SE 17 SE 18 SE 24 CWR.............70 70 70 70 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...HOOPER REQUESTED BY...GARY GOGNAT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090401.RCCAW.01/PAH